To buy a home or wait

By THOMAS HUONG | Apr 16, 2011
huong@thestar.com.my
To buy a home or wait

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First time home buyers who are daunted by soaring prices of residential properties in the Klang Valley should not wait in the hope of a softening in the property market.

Prospective new home buyers may want to take note of rising construction costs that are driving up property prices, as well as possible further interest rate hikes in view of the consumer price inflation hitting a 22-month high of 2.9% in February.

On Wednesday, SP Setia Bhd president and chief executive officer Tan Sri Liew Kee Sin said he expected home prices to rise by at least 10% this year, depending on location, to reflect higher construction costs.

“Property prices will not drop as the costs do not allow this anymore,” said Liew during the Invest Malaysia 2011 conference in Kuala Lumpur.

Meanwhile, a recent report from Hwang DBS Vickers Research says that as a proven inflation hedge, property should remain in demand even with potential interest rate hikes.

The report says while it is believed that the 70% loan-to-value cap managed to cap speculative activities to a certain extent, strong underlying demand from first-second home owners and upgraders has continued to support recent property sales, even at new benchmark prices.

The 70% loan-to-value ratio satisfies Bank Negara’s ruling (announced last November) which requires buyers of third and subsequent residential properties to fork out 30% downpayment.

Also, a recent survey by the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (Mier) on residential property in the country says an astounding 61% of housing developers who responded to the survey had adjusted their prices of their residential properties upwards in the first quarter of this year – the highest proportion garnered since the third quarter of 2008.

None of the respondents in the survey had lowered their prices.

However, the Mier survey report concludes that pressure exerted by high costs of raw raw materials, fears of rising oil prices, and the interest rate factor could all combine and impact negatively on the sector in the coming months.

“This is likely to impinge on the future growth of outlying areas, and may also dampen the revival process of developments that are currently suffering from low take-up rates, low population inflow and an overhang problem,” said the report.

Short-term outlook

The Mier report pointed out that “the short-term outlook for the residential property sector looks calm generally”.

Financial coaches and planners contacted by StarBizWeek also say that first time home buyers should not sit on the sidelines.

“There is no certainty that if you wait, you can get a cheaper residential unit. A property loan is long term. Even half a percentage point rise in interest rate will have a major effect for the home buyer,” said CTLA Financial Planners Sdn Bhd managing director Mike Lee.

Whitman Independent Advisors Sdn Bhd managing director Yap Ming Hui shares a similar opinion.

However, Yap cautions, “Waiting for a few months before making a buying decision may not make much difference in the purchasing costs, depending on the location and type of property the buyer is looking at.”

Carol Yip, chief executive officer of Abacus Advisory Sdn Bhd, also advises home buyers not to be too hasty.

“They must always look at their own financial positions and the affordability factor,” said Yip.

http://www.starproperty.my/PropertyScene/TheStarOnlineHighlightBox/11420/0/0

Thursday April 21, 2011
Inflation and demand to lift property prices 10%-20% this year
By EUGENE MAHALINGAM
eugenicz@thestar.com.my


KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian property prices are expected to increase at an average of between 10% and 20% this year, in light of rising inflation and increase in demand for local properties from foreigners, said Deputy Finance Minister Datuk Donald Lim Siang Chai.

“Inflation in 2010 stood at 2.2% and was at 2.4% in the first two months of this year. We expect it to be higher this year due to escalating food and oil prices,” he said after the launch of the National Property Information Centre's (Napic) property market report 2010 yesterday.

Lim also said many foreigners were looking to purchase property here because the prices of properties were cheaper than in neighbouring countries such as Singapore.

“And Malaysia, because of the ETP (Economic Transformation Programme) has attracted a number of investments from overseas. Investments last year were four times higher than 2009.

“We also expect more foreign companies to set up base here. Our Islamic banking is No. 1 in the world (so) all this will attract foreigners to come into Malaysia,” Lim said, adding that this would also contribute towards pushing up prices of properties in Malaysia.

He said rising oil prices would also cause prices to escalate.

“There's a lot of uncertainty in the Middle East. It's beyond our control and that (rising oil prices) will affect the other things,” he said adding that property prices in Malaysia were currently at a “manageable position.”

According to Napic's statistics, the Malaysian property market recorded 376,583 transactions in 2010 worth RM107.44bil.

Both the volume and value of transactions registered double-digit growth of 11.4% and 32.6% respectively from 338,089 transactions worth RM81.02bil in 2009.

Napic valuation director-general Datuk Abdullah Thalith Md Thani said 2010's (RM107.44bil) value was a new high for the Malaysian property market.

“In 2008 and 2009, we (Malaysian property market) suffered a bit. The volume of property transactions will go up (this year) but the margin will not be as high as last year.

“We had a good year last year because we rebounded from the sub-prime experience,” he said.

Abdullah added that Malaysia's fundamentals were still good, despite the uncertainties.

“People are worried about oil prices now but bear in mind, we are oil producers too. I will not say that property (by volume and value) will be better than 2010. There will be an increase. The question is the rate of increase.”

Napic expects the property market to remain promising in 2011, supported by various measures proposed under the Tenth Malaysia Plan and Budget 2011.

It said projects such as the Kuala Lumpur International Financial District, Mass Rapid Transit in Greater KL, the 100-storey Warisan Merdeka, the development of the Malaysian Rubber Board land in Sungai Buloh and the redevelopment of Pudu prison were expected to have positive spill-over effects.

Napic also said the Government's Skim Rumah Pertamaku to assist young adults to own homes below RM220,000, together with other incentives such as stamp duty exemption of 50% on instruments of transfer on a house not exceeding RM350,000 for first time buyers, would increase transaction volumes of homes in this price range.

“With the cessation of the Foreign Investment Committee's approval for the acquisition of properties by foreigners which took effect in June 2009, property investment in Malaysia will be more attractive to foreigners,” said Napic in a statement.

“Given that foreigners are only allowed to purchase commercial and residential properties priced above RM500,000, it is anticipated that more activities will be recorded in the high-end housing units in sought-after neighbourhoods,” it said.

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